Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

广州轨道交通三号线高速行驶条件下对安全限界的影响研究

给出了轨道交通车辆横向偏移量的计算方法 ,并应用列车 -线路动力耦合模型 ,分析了广州地铁三号线的安全限界变化问题。确定了当前按 80km/h行车速度设计的建筑限界能满足 13 0km/h行车速度的要求 ,限界尺寸不需改动可保证列车运行安全平稳     

黄河流域水资源价值的计算与分析

利用经济杠杆的调节作用促使水资源的高效利用，是缓和水资源供需矛盾的有效措施之一。本文以水资源价值理论为基础，从黄河全流域水资源优化配置角度出发，以利用水资源获得最大经济效益为目标，测算了黄河水资源的理论价值，为制定黄河水资源费的征收标准提供科学的理论依据。     

长江三峡区间数字流域水系的构建

基于全球陆地一公里基础高程GLOBE数据 ,采用Martz和Garbrecht研制的数字高程流域水系模型自动提取长江三峡万县～宜昌区间的河网水系、各子流域分水线、河网与子流域编码及河网结构拓扑关系 ,从而构成该区域的数字流域和数字水系。结果表明该模型生成的水系是可以接受的 ,与 1:10万地形图上长江三峡万县～宜昌区间的水系一致 ,这为空间分布式模型的建立提供了必备的空间信息数据。最后 ,探讨了数字流域水系在流域生态学中的应用前景 ,构建的数字水系可为中尺度以上流域水体和水生生物的资源保护与合理利用提供决策平台 ,服务于社会经济的可持续发展。     

生态示范区内生态工业建设模式探讨

生态工业建设为生态示范区建设的重要内容之一 ,是一项涉及到地区经济发展、人地关系协调的重大举措。从生态示范区建设中生态工业的基本定义出发 ,对生态工业建设层次进行详尽分析 ;并结合代表江苏省苏南、苏中和苏北不同社会经济发展水平的三个地区——吴县市、邗江县和邳州市的具体案例 ,通过对其产业构成、主导产业、消费结构以及经济发展总量与人均水平的对比分析 ,指出经济发展水平较低的地区要立足当地农业资源 ,实施末端治理并逐步推广清洁生产这种较低层次的生态工业建设模式 ;而经济发展较好的地区其生态工业的建设则要采用生态企业以及生态工业园区这种较高层次的建设模式。为确保生态工业建设的顺利实施 ,最后从政府、企业、市场和公众四方面提出了生态工业建设的驱动机制     

废水产氢产酸/同型产乙酸耦合产酸条件优化

为了更好地发挥产氢产酸/同型产乙酸耦合系统在废水厌氧发酵生产乙酸方面的优势,有必要寻找一种简单有效的方法以获得该系统产酸的优化条件.利用经过加热处理并活化的厌氧污泥作种泥,以模拟废水中的葡萄糖为底物,针对发酵时间、底物浓度、种泥浓度、初始pH进行4因素10水平均匀设计实验,得到了乙酸生产指标与产酸条件之间关系的回归方程;也得到了以高乙酸产量为主要目标导向同时兼顾高乙酸产率和高乙酸生产强度目标的优化条件;优化条件实验乙酸浓度比均匀设计中最高乙酸浓度提高20%左右.研究表明,将均匀设计应用于废水产氢产酸/同型产乙酸耦合产酸条件优化,可以避免盲目性,迅速获得满意结果.     

区域水战略方案选优的动态组合评价模型研究

水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点，提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型（CMM—DCEM），并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明：CMM—DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合，使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数，克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足，评价过程更加科学合理。     

湖泊水质模型研究进展

湖泊是最重要的淡水资源之一，对社会和经济的发展起着不可估量的作用。保护和改善湖泊水环境问题已成为当前世界关注的一个焦点。湖泊水质模型是一种利用数学语言来描述湖泊污染过程中的物理、化学、生物化学及生物生态各方面之内在规律和相互联系的手段。作为湖泊水环境污染治理、规划决策分析中的一个重要工具，它可以为湖泊的综合整治和科学管理提供科学的依据，在环境保护领域中发挥着举足轻重的作用。分别介绍了湖泊水质模型国内外研究动态、类型、常用软件（WASP、EFDC、CE QUAL W2、CE QUAL R1、CE QUAL ICM、MIKE、SMS等）和应用实例，并综观湖泊水质模型的研究历史和应用前景，系统分析了湖泊水质模型研究的发展趋势。     

Diffusion pollution from livestock and poultry rearing in the Yangtze Delta,China

BACKGROUND: The Yangtze Delta is one of the most developed regions in China and includes Shanghai, eight cities in Jiangsu province and eight cities in Zhejiang province. Meat consumption in this region has increased with economic growth, and most of the consumed meat is produced locally. The water quality of surface waters has deteriorated in recent years. An example was the huge blue-green algae bloom in Tai Lake in late May 2007, which affected millions of people's daily drinking water. However, animal husbandry is considered to be one of the main pollution sources. METHODS: Pollutants (NH3-N, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN)) excreted by livestock and poultry, and the resultant COD (chemical oxygen demand) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), were estimated using two different methods based on different data sets. RESULTS: The number of livestock and poultry has remained stable in the Yangtze Delta over the four years from 1999 to 2002, with the average number of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry being 21.1 M, 0.4 M, 7.7 M and 597.6 M, respectively. Pollutants in livestock and poultry excreta estimated by Method I were: 0.12 Mt NH3-N, 0.11 Mt TP and 0.29 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.34 Mt and 1.30 Mt, respectively, while the estimations based on Method II were: 0.18 Mt NH3-N, 0.15 Mt TP and 0.40 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.95 Mt and 1.80 Mt, respectively. DISCUSSION: Pollutants excreted annually by livestock and poultry in the Yangtze Delta are estimated to be: 0.17 Mt NH3-N, 0.16 Mt TP and 0.42 Mt TN, giving rise to a COD of 1.86 Mt and a BOD of 1.72 Mt. Approximately 25% of this pollution was estimated to enter water bodies, which means that the annual pollutant load is 43,700 t NH3-N, 39,400 tTP, 104,600t TN with a COD of 465,000 tand a BOD of 430,100 t. Pollutants from animal husbandry were similar in magnitude to those from industrial wastewater. Pigs produced the most pollution, followed by poultry, cattle and sheep. The pollution load from animal husbandry in the Yangtze Delta is about twice the average level of the whole of China. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic wastewater was the main pollution source in the Yangtze Delta, followed by pollution from raising livestock and poultry and from industrial wastewater. The pollution load in Shanghai and Jiaxing were the greatest, followed by 7 cities of Jiangsu province (except Suzhou) and other cities of Zhejiang province and Suzhou. Pigs and poultry produced about 90% of the total pollutants from animal husbandry. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The local governments, especially in Shanghai and Jiaxing, should focus their attention on the pollution produced by livestock and poulrry. Controlling pollution from pigs and poultry will have the greatest impact in this region. Control of pollution will be facilitated by the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming units and a shift away from small scale husbandry.